Treadmill-Based Fitness Score Can Predict 10-Year Survival

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Treadmill-Based Fitness Score Can Predict 10-Year Survival
Treadmill-Based Fitness Score Can Predict 10-Year Survival

MONDAY, March 2, 2015 (HealthDay News) -- A fitness risk score based on exercise stress testing is highly predictive of 10-year survival in adults free from established heart disease, according to a study published in the March issue of the Mayo Clinic Proceedings.

Haitham M. Ahmed, M.D., M.P.H., from Johns Hopkins Hospital in Baltimore, and colleagues conducted a retrospective cohort study involving 58,020 adults (median age, 53 years; 49 percent female) who were free from established heart disease and referred for an exercise stress test. As part of the Henry Ford Exercise Testing (FIT) Project, demographic, clinical, exercise, and mortality data were collected on all patients. Exercise test variables most predictive of survival were identified and the β coefficients of the model with the highest survival discrimination were used to derive a "FIT Treadmill Score."

The researchers found that 11 percent of patients died over a median of 10 years. Peak metabolic equivalents of task and percentage of maximum predicted heart rate achieved were most highly predictive of survival, after age and sex (P < 0.001). Survival discrimination was not further improved by subsequent addition of baseline blood pressure and heart rate, change in vital signs, double product, and risk factor data. Across the cohort, the FIT Treadmill Score, ranged from −200 to 200, was near normally distributed and found to be highly predictive of survival (Harrell C statistic, 0.811).

"The FIT Treadmill Score should be validated in external populations," the authors write.

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